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体彩快赢481投注技巧:Global Economic Prospects

Darkening Skies

Overview

Global Outlook

Moderating activity and heightened risks are clouding global economic prospects. International trade and investment have softened, trade tensions remain elevated, and some large emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have experienced financial market pressures. EMDE growth has stalled, with a weaker-than-expected recovery in commodity exporters accompanied by a deceleration in commodity importers. Downside risks have increased, including the possibility of disorderly financial market movements and escalating trade disputes. It is critical for EMDE policymakers to rebuild policy buffers while fostering potential growth by boosting human capital, removing barriers to investments, and promoting trade integration. 

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Regional Outlooks

The recovery in EMDE activity has stalled, with growth expected at 4.2 percent in 2019—much weaker than previous projections. The cyclical upswing in regions with many commodity exporters has lost momentum, partly reflecting a substantial slowdown in some large economies, and is projected to plateau over the next couple of years. Growth in regions with large numbers of commodity importers was solid but has decelerated. For all regions, risks to the outlook are increasingly tilted to the downside.

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    East Asia and Pacific

    East Asia and Pacific remains one of the world’s fastest-growing developing regions. Regional growth is expected to moderate to 6 percent in 2019, assuming broadly stable commodity prices, a moderation in global demand and trade, and a gradual tightening of global financial conditions. Growth in China is expected to slow to 6.2 percent this year as domestic and external rebalancing continue. The rest of the region is expected to grow at 5.2 percent in 2019 as resilient demand offsets the negative impact of slowing exports. Indonesia’s growth is expected to hold steady at 5.2 percent. The expansion of the Thai economy is expected to slow in 2019 to 3.8 percent.
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    Europe and Central Asia

    The lingering effects of financial stress in Turkey are anticipated to weigh on regional growth this year, slowing it to 2.3 percent in 2019. Turkey is forecast to experience weak activity and slow to a 1.6 percent pace due to high inflation, high interest rates, and low confidence, dampening consumption and investment. Growth in the western part of the region, excluding Turkey, is projected to slow. Poland is anticipated to slow to 3.9 percent as Euro Area growth slows. Growth in the eastern part of the region is anticipated to slow as large economies including Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine decelerate.
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    Latin America and the Caribbean

    Regional growth is projected to advance to a 1.7 percent pace this year, supported mainly by a pickup in private consumption. Brazil is forecast to expand 2.2 percent, assuming fiscal reforms are quickly put in place, and that a recovery of consumption and investment will outweigh cutbacks to government spending. In Mexico, policy uncertainty and the prospect of still subdued investment is expected to keep growth at a moderate 2 percent, despite the fall in trade-related uncertainty following the announcement of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Argentina is forecast to contract by 1.7 percent as deep fiscal consolidation leads to a loss of employment and reduced consumption and investment.
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    Middle East and North Africa

    Regional growth is projected to rise to 1.9 percent in 2019. Despite slower global trade growth and tighter external financing conditions, domestic factors, particularly policy reforms, are anticipated to bolster growth in the region. Growth among oil exporters is expected to pick up slightly this year, as GCC countries as a group accelerate to a 2.6 percent rate from 2 percent in 2018. Iran is forecast to contract by 3.6 percent in 2019 as sanctions bite. Algeria is forecast to ease to 2.3 percent after a rise in government spending last year tapers off. Egypt is forecast to accelerate to 5.6 percent growth this fiscal year as investment is supported by reforms that strengthen the business climate and as private consumption picks up.
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    South Asia

    Regional growth is expected to accelerate to 7.1 percent in 2019, underpinned by strengthening investment and robust consumption. India is forecast to accelerate to 7.3 percent in FY 2018/19 as consumption remains robust and investment growth continues, Bangladesh is expected to slow to 7 percent in FY2018/19 as activity is supported by strong private consumption and infrastructure spending. Pakistan’s growth is projected to decelerate to 3.7 percent in FY2018/19, with financial conditions tightening to help counter rising inflation and external vulnerabilities. Sri Lanka is anticipated to speed up slightly to 4 percent in 2019, supported by robust domestic demand and investment boosted by infrastructure projects. Nepal’s post-earthquake momentum is forecast to moderate, and growth should slow to 5.9 percent in FY2018/19.
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    Sub-Saharan Africa

    Regional growth is expected to accelerate to 3.4 percent in 2019, predicated on diminished policy uncertainty and improved investment in large economies together with continued robust growth in non-resource intensive countries. Growth in Nigeria is expected to rise to 2.2 percent in 2019, assuming that oil production will recover and a slow improvement in private demand will constrain growth in the non-oil industrial sector. Angola is forecast to grow 2.9 percent in 2019 as the oil sector recovers as new oil fields come on stream and as reforms bolster the business environment. South Africa is projected to accelerate modestly to a 1.3 percent pace, amid constraints on domestic demand and limited government spending.

Four Topical Issues

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The Great Disinflation

Emerging market and developing economies have achieved a remarkable decline in inflation, from 17.3 percent in 1974 to about 3.5 percent in 2018. This achievement has coincided with an even sharper decline in inflation in advanced economies. The great disinflation in EMDEs has also been accompanied by growing inflation synchronization as evidenced by the emergence of a global inflation cycle. It has been supported by long-term trends such as the widespread adoption of robust monetary policy frameworks and strengthening of global trade and finan... See More

Four Topical Issues

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Growing in the Shadow: Challenges of Informality

The informal sector accounts for about a third of GDP and 70 percent of employment (of which selfemployment is more than a half) in emerging market and developing economies. Informality is more widespread in lower-income countries with a large agricultural sector and a high share of unskilled workers. While offering the advantage of flexibility and employment in some economies, a larger informal sector is associated with lower productivity, reduced tax revenues, and greater poverty and inequality. Overcoming the challenges of informality requir... See More

Four Topical Issues

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Debt in Low-Income Countries: Evolution, Implications, and Remedies

Debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries (LICs) have increased substantially in recent years. Since 2013, median government debt has risen by about 20 percentage points of GDP and increasingly comes from nonconcessional and private sources. As a result, in most LICs interest payments are absorbing an increasing proportion of government revenues. The majority of LICs would be hard hit by a sudden weakening in trade or global financial conditions given high levels of external debt, lack of fiscal space, low foreign currency reserves, and undi... See More

Four Topical Issues

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Poverty Impact of Food Price Shocks and Policies

In the event of large swings in world food prices, countries often intervene to dampen the impact of international food price spikes on domestic prices and to lessen the burden of adjustment on vulnerable population groups. While individual countries can succeed at insulating their domestic markets from short-term fluctuations in global food prices, the collective intervention of many countries may exacerbate the volatility of world prices. Insulating policies introduced during the 2010-11 food price spike may have accounted for 40 percent of ... See More

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Global Economic Prospects

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