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新快赢481图标:Global Economic Prospects

The Turning of the Tide?

Overview

Global Outlook

Global growth is expected to edge down over the next two years, as global slack dissipates, trade and investment moderate, and financing conditions tighten. In EMDEs, growth in commodity importers is expected to remain robust, while the rebound in commodity exporters is projected to mature. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including the possibility of disorderly financial market movements, escalating trade protectionism, heightened policy uncertainty, and rising geopolitical tensions. EMDE policymakers need to rebuild monetary and fiscal policy buffers and boost potential growth by promoting competitiveness, adaptability to technological change, and trade openness.

 

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Regional Outlooks

Growth in EMDEs is projected to reach 4.5 percent in 2018, before stabilizing at 4.7 percent in 2019-20. The ongoing cyclical recovery in most EMDE regions with a substantial number of commodity exporters is expected to continue in the near term, but mature thereafter as commodity prices level off. Robust growth in EMDE regions with large numbers of commodity importers is projected to continue. A close look at the economic outlook for each region follows.

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    East Asia and Pacific

    Growth in the region is forecast to ease from 6.3 percent in 2018 to 6.1 in 2019, reflecting a slowdown in China that is partly offset by a pickup in the rest of the region. Growth in China is anticipated to slow from 6.5 percent in 2018 to 6.3 percent in 2019 as policy support eases and as fiscal policies turn less accommodative. Excluding China, growth in the region is forecast to moderate from 5.4 percent in 2018 to 5.3 percent in 2019 as a cyclical economic recovery matures. Indonesia’s economy is expected to grow 5.2 percent rate this year and 5.3 percent the next. Growth in Thailand is expected accelerate to 4.1 percent in 2018, before moderating slightly to a 3.8 percent rate in 2019. For both commodity exporting and importing economies of the region, capacity constraints and price pressures are expected to intensify over the next two years, leading to tighter monetary policy in an increasing number of countries.
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    Europe and Central Asia

    Growth in the region is projected to moderate to an upwardly revised 3.2 percent in 2018 and edge down to 3.1 percent in 2019 as a modest recovery among commodity exporting economies is only partially offset by a slowdown among commodity importers. In Turkey, growth is forecast to slow to 4.5 percent in 2018 and to 4.0 percent in 2019 as delays in fiscal consolidation and the extension of the credit support program temper an anticipated slowdown following the strong recovery last year. Growth in Russia is anticipated to hold steady at a 1.5 percent rate this year and accelerate to 1.8 percent next year as the effects of rising oil prices and monetary policy easing are offset by oil production cuts and uncertainty around economic sanctions.
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    Latin America and the Caribbean

    Growth in the region is projected to accelerate to a downwardly revised 1.7 percent in 2018 and to 2.3 percent in 2019, spurred by private consumption and investment. The cyclical recovery underway in Brazil is projected to continue, with growth forecast to be above 2 percent this year and in 2019. In Mexico, growth is expected to strengthen moderately to 2.3 percent in 2018 and 2.5 percent in 2019 as investment picks up. Growth in Argentina is anticipated to slow to 1.7 percent this year as monetary and fiscal tightening and the effects of the drought dampen growth, and to remain subdued next year, at 1.8 percent. Growth in some Central American agricultural exporters is expected to pick up in 2018 and 2019, while growth among the commodity importers of that sub-region is expected to stabilize or slow. Economies of the Caribbean are forecast to see a lift to growth in 2018 from post-hurricane reconstruction, tourism, and supportive commodity prices.
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    Middle East and North Africa

    Growth in the region is projected to strengthen to 3 percent in 2018 and to 3.3 percent in 2019, largely as oil exporters recover from the collapse of oil prices. Growth among members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is anticipated to rise to 2.1 percent in 2018 and 2.7 percent in 2019, supported by higher fixed investment. Saudi Arabia is forecast to expand an upwardly revised 1.8 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year. Iran is anticipated to grow 4.1 percent in 2018 and by the same amount in 2019. Oil importing economies are forecast to see stronger growth as business and consumer confidence gets a lift from business climate reforms and improving external demand. Egypt is anticipated to grow 5 percent in Fiscal Year 2017/18 (July 1, 2017-June 30, 2018) and 5.5 percent the following fiscal year.
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    South Asia

    Growth in the region is projected to strengthen to 6.9 percent in 2018 and to 7.1 percent in 2019, mainly as factors holding back growth in India fade. Growth in India is projected to advance 7.3 percent in Fiscal Year 2018/19 (April 1, 2018-March 31, 2019) and 7.5 percent in FY 2019/20, reflecting robust private consumption and strengthening investment. Pakistan is anticipated to expand by 5 percent in FY 2018/19 (July 1, 2018-June 30, 2019), reflecting tighter policies to improve macroeconomic stability. Bangladesh is expected to accelerate to 6.7 percent in FY 2018/19 (July 1, 2018-June 30, 2019).
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    Sub-Saharan Africa

    Growth in the region is projected to strengthen to 3.1 percent in 2018 and to 3.5 percent in 2019, below its long-term average. Nigeria is anticipated to grow by 2.1 percent this year, as non-oil sector growth remains subdued due to low investment, and at a 2.2 percent pace next year. Angola is expected to grow by 1.7 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019, reflecting an increased availability of foreign exchange due to higher oil prices, rising natural gas production, and improved business sentiment. South Africa is forecast to expand 1.4 percent in 2018 and 1.8 percent in 2019 as a pickup in business and consumer confidence supports stronger growth in investment and consumption expenditures. Rising mining output and stable metals prices are anticipated to boost activity in metals exporters. Growth in non-resource-intensive countries is expected to remain robust, supported by improving agricultural conditions and infrastructure investment.

Three Topical Issues

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The Role of Major Emerging Markets in Global Commodity Demand

Rapid growth among the major emerging markets over the past 20 years has boosted global demand for commodities. The seven largest emerging markets (EM7) accounted for almost all the increase in global consumption of metals, and two-thirds of the increase in energy consumption over this period. As these economies mature and shift towards less commodity-intensive activities, their demand for most commodities may plateau. While global energy consumption growth may remain broadly steady, growth in global demand for metals and food could slow by one... See More

Three Topical Issues

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Corporate Debt: Financial Stability and Investment Implications

Average corporate debt in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) has risen over the past decade. This trend raises concerns for their financial stability and growth prospects. Debt service costs of EMDE firms are expected to rise as advanced economies normalize monetary policy, and debt is increasingly held by firms with riskier balance sheets. Firm-level empirical analysis also suggests that debt overhang may be associated with weak investment, especially in large or highly leveraged firms. Countercyclical and macroprudential policie... See More

Three Topical Issues

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Long-term Growth Prospects: Downgraded No More?

A prolonged period of weaker growth expectations, characterized by the systematic downgrading of long-term forecasts, seems to have come to an end. For the first time since 2010, the 10-year-ahead consensus forecast for global growth appears to have stabilized, as long-term growth expectations improved from 2017 in more than half of countries. Although this development could be another encouraging sign the global economy is finally enjoying a healthy expansion, long-term forecasts are often overly optimistic. While well below levels expected a ... See More

Data

Global growth is projected to hold steady at 3.1 percent in 2018 and ease slightly in 2019-20. Click on button to download the data into Excel. Download the report's statistical appendix in PDF format. Charts can be generated by visiting the World Bank's DataBank website.

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    Global

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Real GDP1            
    World 2.8 2.4 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9
       Advanced Economies 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7
            United States 2.9 1.5 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.0
            Euro Area 2.1 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.5
            Japan 1.4 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.5
       Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDE) 3.7 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.7
               Commodity-exporting EMDE 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.0
               Other EMDE 6.1 5.9 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.7
                  Other EMDE excluding China 5.2 4.9 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1
          East Asia and Pacific 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.1 6.0
               China 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.2
               Indonesia 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4
               Thailand 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.8
          Europe and Central Asia 1.1 1.7 4.0 3.2 3.1 3.0
               Russia -2.5 -0.2 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8
               Turkey 6.1 3.2 7.4 4.7 4.4 4.0
               Poland 3.8 2.9 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.5
          Latin America and the Caribbean -0.4 -1.5 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.5
               Brazil -3.5 -3.5 1.0 2.4 2.5 2.4
               Mexico 3.3 2.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7
               Argentina 2.7 -1.8 2.9 1.7 1.8 2.8
          Middle East and North Africa 2.8 5.0 1.6 3.0 3.3 3.2
               Saudi Arabia 4.1 1.7 -0.7 1.8 2.1 2.3
               Iran -1.3 13.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2
               Egypt2 4.4 4.3 4.2 5.0 5.5 5.8
          South Asia 7.1 7.5 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.2
               India3 8.2 7.1 6.7 7.3 7.5 7.5
               Pakistan2 4.1 4.6 5.4 5.8 5.0 5.4
               Bangladesh2 6.6 7.1 7.3 6.5 6.7 7.0
          Sub-Saharan Africa 3.1 1.5 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.7
               Nigeria 2.7 -1.6 0.8 2.1 2.2 2.4
               South Africa 1.3 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.9
               Angola 3.0 0.0 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.4
    Memorandum items:            
       Real GDP1            
          High-income countries 2.3 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.8
          Developing countries 3.7 3.8 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8
             Low-income countries 4.9 4.8 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.3
          BRICS 4.0 4.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4
          World (2010 PPP weights) 3.4 3.2 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7
       World trade volume4 2.7 2.8 4.8 4.3 4.2 4.0
       Commodity prices            
          Oil price5 -47.3 -15.6 23.3 32.6 -1.4 0.1
          Non-energy commodity price index -15.8 -2.6 5.5 5.1 0.2 0.5

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: PPP = purchasing power parity; e = estimate; f = forecast. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other World Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time. Country classifications and lists of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are presented in Table 1.2. BRICS include: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

    1. Aggregate growth rates calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP weights.

    2. GDP growth values are on a fiscal year basis. Aggregates that include these countries are calculated using data compiled on a calendar year basis. Pakistan's growth rates are based on GDP at factor cost. The column labeled 2017 refers to FY2016/17.

    3. The column labeled 2016 refers to FY2016/17.

    4. World trade volume of goods and non-factor services.

    5. Simple average of Dubai, Brent, and West Texas Intermediate.

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    East Asia and Pacific

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    East Asia and Pacific, GDP1 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.1 6.0
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)2
    East Asia and Pacific, GDP2 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.3 6.1 6.0
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 5.8 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.5
            PPP GDP 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.1 6.0
        Private consumption 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.8 7.0
        Public consumption 8.9 9.3 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.4
        Fixed investment 6.5 6.6 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.5
        Exports, GNFS3 0.5 3.2 7.3 5.7 6.0 5.8
        Imports, GNFS3 0.8 5.4 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.4
        Net exports, contribution to growth -0.1 -0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.2
    Memo items: GDP            
        East Asia excluding China 4.9 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3
        China 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.2
        Indonesia 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4
        Thailand 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.8

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. EMDE = emerging market and developing economy.  World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes American Samoa and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

    2. Sub-region aggregate excludes American Samoa, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Fiji, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Myanmar, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Timor-Leste, Tonga, and Tuvalu, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    3. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    GDP growth1 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Cambodia 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.6
    China 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.2
    Fiji 3.6 0.4 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.3
    Indonesia 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4
    Lao PDR 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.9
    Malaysia 5.0 4.2 5.9 5.4 5.1 4.8
    Mongolia 2.4 1.5 5.1 5.3 6.4 6.5
    Myanmar 7.0 5.9 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.1
    Papua New Guinea 5.3 1.9 2.2 -1.7 4.0 3.0
    Philippines 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6
    Solomon Islands 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8
    Thailand 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.8
    Timor-Leste2 4.0 5.3 -1.8 2.2 4.2 4.0
    Vietnam 6.7 6.2 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.5

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast.  World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes American Samoa and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

    2. Non-oil GDP. Timor-Leste’s total GDP, including the oil economy, is roughly four times the non-oil economy, and highly volatile, sensitive to changes in global oil prices and local production levels.

     

     

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    Europe and Central Asia

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Europe and Central Asia, GDP1 1.1 1.7 4.0 3.2 3.1 3.0
    Europe and Central Asia, GDP excl. Russia 3.6 2.9 5.5 4.2 3.9 3.8
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)2
    Europe and Central Asia, GDP2 1.0 1.6 4.0 3.2 3.1 3.0
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 0.6 1.2 3.6 2.8 2.8 2.7
            PPP GDP 0.8 1.6 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.0
        Private consumption -2.4 1.1 4.4 3.1 3.2 3.1
        Public consumption 0.1 3.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3
        Fixed investment 0.4 -0.2 6.8 5.2 4.8 4.7
        Exports, GNFS3 3.9 3.6 6.5 4.8 4.7 4.7
        Imports, GNFS3 -5.5 3.4 9.0 5.5 5.5 5.2
        Net exports, contribution to growth 3.0 0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Memo items: GDP            
    Commodity exporters4 -2.0 0.3 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3
    Commodity importers5 4.5 3.0 5.9 4.3 3.8 3.7
    Central Europe6 3.7 3.2 4.8 4.2 3.7 3.5
    Western Balkans7 2.1 3.1 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.8
    Eastern Europe8 -7.6 0.8 2.5 3.3 3.6 3.5
    South Caucasus9 1.7 -1.6 2.0 2.6 4.0 3.7
    Central Asia10 3.3 3.3 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0
    Russian Federation -2.5 -0.2 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8
    Turkey 6.1 3.2 7.4 4.5 4.0 4.0
    Poland 3.8 2.9 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.5

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. EMDE = emerging market and developing economy.  World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.


    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

    2. Sub-region aggregate excludes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    3. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    4. Includes Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Kosovo, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

    5. Includes Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Georgia, Hungary, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, and Turkey.

    6. Includes Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, and Romania.

    7. Includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.

    8. Includes Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine.

    9. Includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

    10. Includes Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

     

    GDP growth1 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Albania 2.2 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5
    Armenia 3.2 0.2 7.5 4.1 4.0 4.0
    Azerbaijan 1.1 -3.1 0.1 1.8 3.8 3.2
    Belarus -3.8 -2.5 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.5
    Bosnia and Herzegovina2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.4 4.0
    Bulgaria 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.6
    Croatia 2.3 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.8
    Georgia 2.9 2.8 5.0 4.5 4.8 5.0
    Hungary 3.1 2.0 4.0 4.1 3.2 3.0
    Kazakhstan 1.2 1.1 4.0 3.7 3.3 2.8
    Kosovo 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.8 4.8 4.8
    Kyrgyz Republic 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.2 4.8 5.0
    Macedonia, FYR 3.9 2.9 0.0 2.3 2.7 3.0
    Moldova -0.4 4.5 4.5 3.8 3.7 3.5
    Montenegro 3.4 2.9 4.4 2.8 2.5 2.1
    Poland 3.8 2.9 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.5
    Romania 3.9 4.8 7.0 5.1 4.5 4.1
    Russian Federation -2.5 -0.2 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8
    Serbia 0.8 2.8 1.9 3.0 3.5 4.0
    Tajikistan 6.0 6.9 7.1 6.1 6.0 6.0
    Turkey 6.1 3.2 7.4 4.5 4.0 4.0
    Turkmenistan 6.5 6.2 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.3
    Ukraine -9.8 2.3 2.5 3.5 4.0 4.0
    Uzbekistan 7.9 7.8 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.5

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast.  World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars, unless indicated otherwise.

    2. GDP growth rate at constant prices is based on production approach.

     

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    Latin America and the Caribbean

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Latin America and the Caribbean, GDP1 -0.4 -1.5 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.5
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)2
    Latin America and the Caribbean, GDP2 -0.4 -1.5 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.5
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) -1.5 -2.6 -0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5
            PPP GDP 0.2 -0.9 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.6
        Private consumption -0.3 -1.7 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.7
        Public consumption 0.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.7
        Fixed investment -5.5 -6.0 -0.9 3.7 4.0 4.6
        Exports, GNFS3 4.3 1.3 2.0 3.2 3.7 3.9
        Imports, GNFS3 -2.0 -2.9 4.8 4.3 4.1 4.6
        Net exports, contribution to growth 1.3 0.9 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2
    Memo items: GDP            
        South America4 -1.8 -3.2 0.2 1.3 2.1 2.3
        Mexico and Central America5 3.4 3.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8
        Caribbean6 3.7 2.6 2.4 3.5 3.5 3.8
        Brazil -3.5 -3.5 1.0 2.4 2.5 2.4
        Mexico 3.3 2.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7
        Argentina 2.7 -1.8 2.9 1.7 1.8 2.8

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast.  EMDE = emerging market and developing economy.  World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Cuba.

    2. Aggregate includes all countries in notes 4, 5, and 6 except Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Suriname, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    3. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    4. Includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela.

    5. Includes Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Panama.

    6. Includes Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.

     

     

    GDP growth1 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Argentina 2.7 -1.8 2.9 1.7 1.8 2.8
    Belize 3.8 -0.5 1.2 2.0 1.9 1.7
    Bolivia 4.9 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.4
    Brazil -3.5 -3.5 1.0 2.4 2.5 2.4
    Chile 2.3 1.3 1.5 3.3 3.4 3.5
    Colombia 3.0 2.0 1.8 2.7 3.3 3.6
    Costa Rica 3.6 4.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.6
    Dominican Republic 7.0 6.6 4.6 5.0 4.7 4.6
    Ecuador 0.1 -1.6 3.0 2.2 1.5 0.9
    El Salvador2 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
    Grenada 6.4 3.7 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.8
    Guatemala 4.1 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.3
    Guyana 3.1 3.4 2.1 3.8 3.8 29.0
    Haiti3 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.4
    Honduras 3.8 3.8 4.8 3.5 3.6 3.8
    Jamaica 0.9 1.4 0.5 1.7 1.9 2.0
    Mexico 3.3 2.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.7
    Nicaragua 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.4
    Panama 5.6 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6
    Paraguay 3.0 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2
    Peru 3.3 4.0 2.5 3.5 3.8 3.8
    St. Lucia 2.0 0.9 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.3
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1.4 1.9 1.0 2.1 2.5 2.7
    Suriname -2.6 -5.1 0.1 1.1 1.7 2.1
    Trinidad and Tobago 1.5 -6.0 -2.3 1.6 1.9 1.2
    Uruguay 0.4 1.7 2.7 3.3 3.1 2.9
    Venezuela -6.0 -16.5 -14.5 -14.3 -7.0 -4.0

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast.  World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

    2. A recent rebasing of El Salvador's GDP, from 1990 to 2014, has resulted in significant changes to historical growth rates compared to January 2018.

    3. GDP is based on fiscal year, which runs from October to September of next year.

     

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    Middle East and North Africa

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Middle East and North Africa, GDP1 2.8 5.0 1.6 3.0 3.3 3.2
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)2
    Middle East and North Africa, GDP2 2.6 4.8 1.8 3.0 3.3 3.3
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 0.7 2.9 0.1 1.4 1.8 1.9
            PPP GDP 2.6 5.1 2.1 3.2 3.4 3.5
        Private consumption -0.4 1.5 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5
        Public consumption 1.4 -5.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.6
        Fixed investment 1.6 -2.1 0.8 5.1 3.6 4.8
        Exports, GNFS3 2.5 10.0 3.4 3.7 4.1 4.0
        Imports, GNFS3 -2.1 -1.2 4.1 3.7 3.1 3.4
        Net exports, contribution to growth 2.0 5.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8
    Memo items: GDP            
     Oil exporters4 2.7 5.5 1.2 2.7 3.1 2.9
       GCC countries5 3.6 2.5 0.2 2.1 2.7 2.7
       Saudi Arabia 4.1 1.7 -0.7 1.8 2.1 2.3
       Iran -1.3 13.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2
     Oil importers6 3.6 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.6
       Egypt 4.3 4.2 4.6 5.3 5.7 5.8
         Fiscal year basis7 4.4 4.3 4.2 5.0 5.5 5.8

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes:  e = estimate; f = forecast.  EMDE = emerging market and developing economy.  World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Libya, Syria, and Yemen due to data limitations.

    2. Aggregate includes all countries in notes 4 and 6 except Djibouti, Iraq, Qatar, and West Bank and Gaza, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    3. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    4. Oil exporters include Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

    5. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

    6. Oil importers include Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and West Bank and Gaza.

    7. The fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30 in Egypt; e.g., the column labeled 2017 reflects the fiscal year ended June 30, 2017.

     

     

    GDP growth1 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Algeria 3.7 3.3 1.6 3.5 2.0 1.3
    Bahrain 2.9 3.2 3.9 1.7 2.1 2.1
    Djibouti 6.5 6.5 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.3
    Egypt 4.3 4.2 4.6 5.3 5.7 5.8
      Fiscal year basis2 4.4 4.3 4.2 5.0 5.5 5.8
    Iran -1.3 13.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2
    Iraq 4.8 11.0 -0.8 2.5 4.1 1.9
    Jordan 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4
    Kuwait 0.6 3.5 -2.9 1.9 3.5 3.0
    Lebanon 0.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
    Morocco 4.5 1.2 4.0 3.0 3.5 3.7
    Oman 4.7 5.4 0.7 2.3 2.5 2.9
    Qatar 3.6 2.2 1.6 2.8 3.2 2.8
    Saudi Arabia 4.1 1.7 -0.7 1.8 2.1 2.3
    Tunisia 1.0 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.4
    United Arab Emirates 3.8 3.0 2.0 2.5 3.2 3.3
    West Bank and Gaza 3.4 4.7 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.3

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast.  World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of economies’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Libya, Syria, and Yemen due to data limitations.

    2. The fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30 in Egypt; e.g., the column labeled 2017 reflects the fiscal year ended June 30, 2017.

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    South Asia

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    South Asia, GDP1, 2 7.1 7.5 6.6      6.9      7.1      7.2
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)3
    South Asia, GDP3 7.1 7.5 6.7      6.9      7.2      7.2
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 5.8 6.2 5.4      5.6      5.9      6.0
            PPP GDP 7.1 7.5 6.7      6.9      7.1      7.2
        Private consumption 5.5 8.4 7.6      6.6      6.9      7.0
        Public consumption 2.6 13.8 6.7      9.7      8.8      8.5
        Fixed investment 5.5 4.7 10.3      7.6      7.7      7.7
        Exports, GNFS4 -5.0 0.9 4.5      5.7      6.1      6.1
        Imports, GNFS4 -3.8 0.3 6.2      7.5      6.5      6.1
        Net exports, contribution to growth -0.1 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3
    Memo items: GDP2 15/16 16/17 17/18e 18/19f 19/20f 20/21f
        South Asia excluding India                                            5.4 5.8 5.6      5.6      5.6      5.7
            India 8.2 7.1 6.7      7.3      7.5      7.5
            Pakistan (factor cost) 4.6 5.4 5.8      5.0      5.4      5.4
            Bangladesh 7.1 7.3 6.5      6.7      7.0      7.0 

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast.  EMDE = emerging market and developing economy.  World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

    2. National income and product account data refer to fiscal years (FY) for the South Asian countries, while aggregates are presented in calendar year terms. The fiscal year runs from July 1 through June 30 in Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Pakistan, from July 16 through July 15 in Nepal, and April 1 through March 31 in India.

    3. Sub-region aggregate excludes Afghanistan, Bhutan, and Maldives, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    4. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

     

     

    GDP growth 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Calendar year basis1            
    Afghanistan 1.3 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.5 3.3
    Maldives 2.2 6.2 6.2 5.5 4.5 4.9
    Sri Lanka 5.0 4.5 3.1 4.8 4.5 4.5
    Fiscal year basis1 15/16 16/17 17/18e 18/19f 19/20f 20/21f
    Bangladesh 7.1 7.3 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.0
    Bhutan 7.3 7.4 5.8 5.4 6.0 8.7
    India 8.2 7.1 6.7 7.3 7.5 7.5
    Nepal 0.6 7.9 6.3 4.5 4.2 4.2
    Pakistan (factor cost) 4.6 5.4 5.8 5.0 5.4 5.4

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast.  World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    1. Historical data is reported on a market price basis. National income and product account data refer to fiscal years (FY) for the South Asian countries with the exception of Afghanistan, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, which report in calendar year. The fiscal year runs from July 1 through June 30 in Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Pakistan, from July 16 through July 15 in Nepal, and April 1 through March 31 in India.

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    Sub-Saharan Africa

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Sub-Saharan Africa, GDP1 3.1 1.5 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.7
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)2
    Sub-Saharan Africa, GDP2 3.1 1.5 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.7
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 0.4 -1.2 -0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0
            PPP GDP 3.3 1.7 2.9 3.4 3.7 3.9
        Private consumption 5.8 0.6 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.9
        Public consumption -2.3 1.4 2.6 2.5 2.9 3.0
        Fixed investment 1.5 0.4 6.0 6.8 7.4 7.6
        Exports, GNFS3 2.7 3.6 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.8
        Imports, GNFS3 2.0 -0.9 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.4
        Net exports, contribution to growth 0.2 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
    Memo items: GDP            
    SSA ex. Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola 4.6 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.5
    Oil exporters4 2.9 -0.4 1.5 2.3 2.6 2.8
    CFA countries5 3.9 2.8 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.9
         CEMAC  1.7 -0.9 -0.2 1.4 2.3 3.0
         WAEMU  6.2 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.4
     SSA3 2.1 -0.5 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.2
         Nigeria 2.7 -1.6 0.8 2.1 2.2 2.4
         South Africa 1.3 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.9
         Angola 3.0 0.0 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.4

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast.  EMDE = emerging market and developing economy.  World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Central African Republic, S?o Tomé and Príncipe, Somalia, and South Sudan.

    2. Sub-region aggregate excludes Central African Republic, S?o Tomé and Príncipe, Somalia, and South Sudan, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    3. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    4. Includes Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Republic of Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Nigeria, and Sudan.

    5. Includes Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic of Congo, C?te d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.

    GDP growth1 2015 2016 2017e 2918f 2019f 2020f
    Angola 3.0 0.0 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.4
    Benin 2.1 4.0 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.3
    Botswana2 -1.7 4.3 1.8 3.0 3.3 3.8
    Burkina Faso 3.9 5.9 6.4 6.0 6.0 6.0
    Burundi -3.9 -0.6 0.5 1.9 2.3 2.5
    Cabo Verde 1.0 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.0
    Cameroon 5.7 4.5 3.2 3.9 4.1 4.3
    Chad 2.8 -6.3 -3.0 2.6 2.5 5.8
    Comoros 1.0 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.0
    Congo, Dem. Rep. 6.9 2.4 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.4
    Congo, Rep. 2.6 -2.8 -4.6 0.7 4.6 -1.2
    C?te d'Ivoire 8.8 8.3 7.8 7.4 7.2 7.2
    Equatorial Guinea -9.1 -9.0 -2.7 -6.4 -7.0 -0.5
    Ethiopia2 10.4 7.6 10.3 9.6 9.7 9.9
    Gabon 3.9 2.1 0.6 2.6 3.7 3.9
    Gambia, The 4.3 2.2 3.5 5.4 5.2 4.9
    Ghana 3.8 3.7 7.8 6.9 6.7 5.4
    Guinea 3.8 10.5 8.2 6.0 5.9 6.0
    Guinea-Bissau 6.1 5.8 5.7 5.1 5.2 5.4
    Kenya 5.7 5.9 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.1
    Lesotho 5.6 2.3 3.1 1.8 2.6 2.8
    Liberia 0.0 -1.6 2.5 3.2 4.7 4.8
    Madagascar 3.1 4.2 4.1 5.1 5.6 5.3
    Malawi 2.8 2.5 4.0 3.7 4.1 4.9
    Mali 6.0 5.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.7
    Mauritania 1.4 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.6 5.2
    Mauritius 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.8
    Mozambique 6.6 3.8 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.6
    Namibia 6.0 1.1 -1.0 1.5 2.3 3.0
    Niger 4.0 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.8
    Nigeria 2.7 -1.6 0.8 2.1 2.2 2.4
    Rwanda 8.8 6.0 6.1 6.8 7.1 7.5
    Senegal 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.0
    Seychelles 3.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.5
    Sierra Leone -20.5 6.3 4.3 5.1 5.7 6.5
    South Africa 1.3 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.9
    Sudan 4.9 4.7 4.3 2.6 3.1 3.5
    Swaziland 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.1 1.7 1.8
    Tanzania 7.0 7.0 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0
    Togo 5.3 5.0 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.0
    Uganda2 5.2 4.7 4.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
    Zambia 2.9 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.8
    Zimbabwe 1.7 0.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 4.0

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Central African Republic, S?o Tomé and Príncipe, Somalia, and South Sudan.

    2. Fiscal-year-based numbers.

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